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Author Topic: Election 2010: Hello to gridlock ... and goodbye to recovery?  (Read 26225 times)
mandrina
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« Reply #15: November 03, 2010, 10:41:36 am »

what she said.

basically, the 2 main groups of people who get left out of the unemployment calculation are those who are discouraged, but do need work, and those who are underemployed, ie working part time when they'd rather be working fulltime, but haven't found another job, even though they are looking.

The new unemployment claims are more of a measure of trends, I think, and how many jobs are disappearing or not.
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« Reply #16: November 03, 2010, 11:37:15 am »

basically, the 2 main groups of people who get left out of the unemployment calculation are those who are discouraged, but do need work, and those who are underemployed, ie working part time when they'd rather be working fulltime, but haven't found another job, even though they are looking.

The new unemployment claims are more of a measure of trends, I think, and how many jobs are disappearing or not.

Precisely why many economists dislike the government's unemployment numbers.
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« Reply #17: November 03, 2010, 11:49:36 am »

Precisely why many economists dislike the government's unemployment numbers.
But the gubbmint never puts out bad, false, or skewed numbers, especially not in an election year. 
 Huh
What is up with all those people still unemployed anyway.  The 'recession' ended a year ago.  The gubbmint said it, I believe it, and that settles it.
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« Reply #18: November 03, 2010, 12:05:39 pm »

But the gubbmint never puts out bad, false, or skewed numbers, especially not in an election year. 
 Huh
What is up with all those people still unemployed anyway.  The 'recession' ended a year ago.  The gubbmint said it, I believe it, and that settles it.

The government measures may be flawed,  but I do not think they are intentionally misleading or intended to favor on party over another.  They were the same under Republicans as under Dems.
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« Reply #19: November 03, 2010, 12:29:52 pm »

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed

not really an answer to you, sailor, but rather, information.

Thank you. You proved my point.
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« Reply #20: November 03, 2010, 12:34:35 pm »

But the gubbmint never puts out bad, false, or skewed numbers, especially not in an election year. 
 Huh
What is up with all those people still unemployed anyway.  The 'recession' ended a year ago.  The gubbmint said it, I believe it, and that settles it.

The numbers are skewed because of every 2 year elections. Nobody wants to take the heat for changing the method of calculation things like unemployment, inflation, etc. Any meaningful change in the method would be viewed as being done for partisian political advantage. That being said, Randall is right, the numbers don't change based upon the political party in power.

I'll have to see if I can find the West Wing clip on YouTube about how housing is over estimated (at least in the show's CPI) and had been for decades.
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mandrina
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« Reply #21: November 03, 2010, 12:55:42 pm »

The numbers are skewed because of every 2 year elections. Nobody wants to take the heat for changing the method of calculation things like unemployment, inflation, etc. Any meaningful change in the method would be viewed as being done for partisian political advantage. That being said, Randall is right, the numbers don't change based upon the political party in power.

I'll have to see if I can find the West Wing clip on YouTube about how housing is over estimated (at least in the show's CPI) and had been for decades.

Can you explain what you mean by housing is overestimated?
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« Reply #22: November 03, 2010, 01:42:55 pm »

Hello to gridlock ... and goodbye to recovery?

As a die-hard Democrat, I know I should be more upset...but I find myself giving a big shrug. The Democrats haven't shown a lot of capacity to govern...the Republicans aren't interested in governing, just obstructing...and they've been doing that already, so what's coming will be just more of the same.

The right says the people have spoken, but all they've really said is that they're economically scared and/or jobless. They threw the bums out in 2008 because of it, and now they've thrown out a different set of bums for the same reason. But they haven't voted in *support* of anyone's proposed solutions to the economic mess, because no one's really offering any.

I take comfort in the defeat of some of the crazier teabaggers (e.g., here in NY, Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl "Run, nigger, run" Paladino went down in flames). I'm upset about the ouster of 3 of the Iowa judges whose ruling brought same-sex marriage to that state. And I'm on pins and needles to find out whether Dems or the GOP will control the NY State Senate, because with redistricting coming, it may lock in one party's control of the senate for years to come (and affect my ability to eventually get married in my home state).

I guess I'm not sure what to make of it all.
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« Reply #23: November 03, 2010, 02:23:47 pm »

I guess I'm not sure what to make of it all.

I'm pretty much in agreement with the second paragraph of this piece.

Liberal activist blames 'weak Democratic leaders' for historic losses

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/03/liberal-activist-blames-weak-democratic-leaders-for-historic-losses/
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« Reply #24: November 03, 2010, 02:38:11 pm »

I'm pretty much in agreement with the second paragraph of this piece.

Liberal activist blames 'weak Democratic leaders' for historic losses

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/03/liberal-activist-blames-weak-democratic-leaders-for-historic-losses/

That's very much the way I feel. The Dems are still playing "Republican Lite", which only leads to people like me on the left getting disgusted and people on the right voting for the real Republican deal.
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« Reply #25: November 03, 2010, 02:43:10 pm »

That's very much the way I feel. The Dems are still playing "Republican Lite", which only leads to people like me on the left getting disgusted and people on the right voting for the real Republican deal.

Exactly how I feel.  Really the Dems should have spent their time making various economic reforms and regulations instead of putting money in the pockets of the idiots that caused this mess.  And now there is probably no chance that those same idiots wouldn't get taxed the amount they should.
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« Reply #26: November 03, 2010, 04:29:20 pm »

Can you explain what you mean by housing is overestimated?

Remember, the example is from a fictional TV show, but the basics still apply.

The rate of inflation (CPI) is calculated using a market basket of items. A family of 4 will buy certain specific items (not by brand name I think, but by type).  The family has to rent a house or apartment and that is assumed to take 40% of the family budget. So, if housing costs go up by 10%, 40% the overall family budget has to go up by 10%, or 4%. Now, the market basket does change, so stereo vinyl record players are out, but MP3 players are in. That's a minor change.

If housing is only 20% of the budget, that means only a 2% increase.

In the show, the lady who set up the market basket in the 1950s was originially from eastern Europe and assumed that since workers there spent 40% on housing, then American families did also, rather than 30%. Now, 45 yrs later, somebody is looking at the make up of the budget and realizes there has been an over statement of housing costs and they want to change it. Problem is that changing the proportion would look like the White House / Bartlett / Democrats was trying to hide / fool the numbers to drop the rate of inflation.
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« Reply #27: November 03, 2010, 06:55:36 pm »

(I suspect that after the new Congress comes in in January, I'll be revamping the news posting stuff.)


Hello to gridlock ... and goodbye to recovery?
Post-election inaction in D.C. probably won't bode well for the economy

WASHINGTON — Political gridlock is supposed to be good for business. If bickering lawmakers can't agree on anything, the thinking goes, they can't pass laws and regulations that make the economy worse.

So will the midterm elections, which are expected to leave Congress at least partially controlled by Republicans and squaring off against a Democratic White House, be a help to the economy?

Don't count on it.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39956799/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/


I look at this a bit differently. We've always needed a balance of power in Washington and it's more than just being about Reps. vs. Dems. I am not entirely happy with the way things were going with a purely dem congress. I am not saying I'm totally trusting of the Congress we'll get in 2011, but anything is better than what we had. Most of those people have been in those offices for WAY too long, and it shows because we're getting a whole lot of zero done.

This happened when Clinton was in office too, and it had to. It strengthened his second term and made him come to the middle. I can only hope Obama does the same.
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mandrina
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« Reply #28: November 03, 2010, 06:56:53 pm »


I look at this a bit differently. We've always needed a balance of power in Washington and it's more than just being about Reps. vs. Dems. I am not entirely happy with the way things were going with a purely dem congress. I am not saying I'm totally trusting of the Congress we'll get in 2011, but anything is better than what we had. Most of those people have been in those offices for WAY too long, and it shows because we're getting a whole lot of zero done.

This happened when Clinton was in office too, and it had to. It strengthened his second term and made him come to the middle. I can only hope Obama does the same.

Obama has already gone further than the middle, he needs to move the other way.
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« Reply #29: November 03, 2010, 08:19:40 pm »

Obama has already gone further than the middle, he needs to move the other way.


I would disagree. But, I think that's a matter of perception. As is everything in politics.
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