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Author Topic: New Study: Evidence for Precognition?  (Read 8906 times)
yewberry
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« Reply #15: December 15, 2010, 03:55:52 pm »

Almost all the "skeptics" I run into are just mirror images of True Believers, with moving evidentiary goalposts, and circular logic in the opposite direction.

I guess I've been fortunate not to have met this ilk.  I'm a big fan of skepticism and skeptics (and Randi, actually), which is why I asked.  Skepticism keeps people honest and questioning, which are good things.

Brina
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« Reply #16: December 15, 2010, 05:25:12 pm »

Almost all the "skeptics" I run into are just mirror images of True Believers, with moving evidentiary goalposts, and circular logic in the opposite direction.  Once upon a time I was a very militant atheist and "skeptic" on all things metaphysical, anin a lot of ways it was a more close-minded state of being than my fundamentalist Baptist upbringing.

The skeptics I know are scientific skeptics, which means that they are responsive to the methodology and can be convinced of anything if the methods are sound and consistent.

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NibbleKat
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« Reply #17: December 15, 2010, 05:45:14 pm »

The history of parapsychology is littered with bad and rigged experiments, but this at least sounds interesting:

Read the full article

My boyfriend has been talking about this one. He's a research psychologist, and mentioned something about how it has some severe statistical issues and how he and all of his colleagues were very surprised that it actually got published due to -that-, but that he's NOT surprised it got published b/c of the weight of the names behind it. He's got a copy of what the issues were 'somewhere' he says, so I will see if I can't track that down via him.

He was also amused that about the same time this 'study' came out, another one came out regarding how ESP/Precognition/etc is impossible... and it showed a lot of statistical info yadda yadda yadda. Smiley~~

I am a believer in the possibility of ESP and things of that nature, but from what I've heard about this study, I'd be loathe to trust it, honestly.
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« Reply #18: December 15, 2010, 05:59:44 pm »

My boyfriend has been talking about this one. He's a research psychologist, and mentioned something about how it has some severe statistical issues and how he and all of his colleagues were very surprised that it actually got published due to -that-, but that he's NOT surprised it got published b/c of the weight of the names behind it. He's got a copy of what the issues were 'somewhere' he says, so I will see if I can't track that down via him.

He was also amused that about the same time this 'study' came out, another one came out regarding how ESP/Precognition/etc is impossible... and it showed a lot of statistical info yadda yadda yadda. Smiley~~

I am a believer in the possibility of ESP and things of that nature, but from what I've heard about this study, I'd be loathe to trust it, honestly.

I thought that JPSP had blind review?  Granted, there's a limit to that because it is a small community and writing styles are distinct.  But just having a big name doesn't mean you will get published.  Some of my profs at Purdue were huge names and still got rejected by JPSP.
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« Reply #19: December 15, 2010, 10:04:03 pm »

He's got a copy of what the issues were 'somewhere' he says, so I will see if I can't track that down via him.

I'd definitely be interested in seeing those.
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« Reply #20: December 15, 2010, 11:39:33 pm »

The skeptics I know are scientific skeptics, which means that they are responsive to the methodology and can be convinced of anything if the methods are sound and consistent.

Sperran

You're fortunate indeed. I wish I had known many more than the smattering of what I would term true skeptics, those that waited for evidences before they made a statement of belief, and until then allowed for the possibility of any given claim to be true until evidence one way or the other was presented.

Unfortunately, the opposite has been quite my experience.
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yewberry
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« Reply #21: December 16, 2010, 12:17:51 am »

Some of my profs at Purdue were huge names and still got rejected by JPSP.

Were their topics this sexayWink

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« Reply #22: December 16, 2010, 11:04:48 am »

Were their topics this sexayWink

Brina

Probably not...which actually makes a difference in publication.  There is sometimes a little less rigor on what gets published if it is a topic that hasn't been explored well and the editors are hoping to get more people on the replication train.

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« Reply #23: December 16, 2010, 03:36:03 pm »

I thought that JPSP had blind review?  Granted, there's a limit to that because it is a small community and writing styles are distinct.  But just having a big name doesn't mean you will get published.  Some of my profs at Purdue were huge names and still got rejected by JPSP.

I don't know if it was blind review or not. However, a big name certainly doesn't -hurt- to get your name published, either... better odds than someone who is a 'no-name' or first time publisher.

I asked the bf last night for more specifics regarding the tests and why folks were talking down about them, and he started going into things such as one-tail and two-tail statistics and my brain melted. He's going to look for the threads where those researchers/scientists were talking about this paper when it stops being "INCLEMENT WEATHER" here and he can get to the lab.

Smiley
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« Reply #24: December 16, 2010, 04:29:23 pm »

I don't know if it was blind review or not. However, a big name certainly doesn't -hurt- to get your name published, either... better odds than someone who is a 'no-name' or first time publisher.

I asked the bf last night for more specifics regarding the tests and why folks were talking down about them, and he started going into things such as one-tail and two-tail statistics and my brain melted. He's going to look for the threads where those researchers/scientists were talking about this paper when it stops being "INCLEMENT WEATHER" here and he can get to the lab.

Smiley

I checked the website.  Assuming he did not submit to the Personality editor, it should have been a masked (blind) review.  But, like I said, in a community that small having a truly blind review is very hard.  People know what researchers are doing what research based on conference chit-chat and Bem has a fairly distinct writing style.  Would be interested in hearing what others say about the stats.  Since the effect size was so modest, a little tweaking of stats could change the results.

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« Reply #25: December 17, 2010, 08:12:01 am »

I guess I've been fortunate not to have met this ilk.  I'm a big fan of skepticism and skeptics (and Randi, actually), which is why I asked.  Skepticism keeps people honest and questioning, which are good things.

Brina

I've encountered the uber!skeptic once. I had her as a friend on a couple of social networking sites, while she was apart of one path, and then moved to another, and finally came to realize that Christianity wasn't for her, and she started on a path of trying to find an alternate spirituality I guess until she picked up a book of Richard Dawkins', did some more research into atheism.. and then went completely off the deep end. She started talking about how religious/spiritual people were mentally unstable and couldn't tell right from wrong, teaching kids religion was akin to abuse, called for the extermination of all religion, indoctrination of atheism for everyone ... It was actually terrifying to read. I cut her out of my life because I got really sick and tired of reading every single day (Well that, and she was a bit of a drama queen), and no, I am not exaggerating. Every day brought on a new rant of how evil religion was.

They're out there, but I think it's just not all that common to run into them randomly, because they tend to run in the same circles (like most extremists or "militants", save for those who go out there looking for a fight). Personally, I have no problem with skeptics, or people who are naturally skeptical. I can have decent, adult conversations about religion, life, the Gods, whatever, with skeptics, and we both still walk away believing what we do, but perhaps understanding more than we did before. What I don't like is if I open my mouth and anything remotely resembling religion/spirituality comes out they have to jump on it, call me delusional, and don't even bother discussing things with me while naming every single thing they plausibly can that "religion" (in most cases, its Christianity. In the cases where they recognize the difference, but make no correction to what they've said, it ends of being "you're less dangerous, but still delusion and need to be fixed") did wrong.

So... to make a long story short: skeptics are cool, extremist/militant skeptics that went off the deep end are less cool, and generally aggravating and not helping.
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« Reply #26: December 17, 2010, 10:03:12 am »

So... to make a long story short: skeptics are cool, extremist/militant skeptics that went off the deep end are less cool, and generally aggravating and not helping.
<nodnod>  I'm reminded of the member of the Alberta Skeptics' Society (hmm, I may be misremembering their proper name; the acronym of that one is unfortunate) who, in giving a UFO-debunking panel at a SF convention, centred his "proof" on how current human technology couldn't build anything that could maneuver in the way that UFOs are claimed to maneuver, therefore no such technology could possibly exist.  Skepticism:  UR DOIN IT RONG.  (I later learned that other members of the AS didn't think much of him.)

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